Gas storage must remain above 33% for a secure winter, according to the IEA, while levels below that risk shortages if there's a late cold snap. The goal is to prevent storage levels from falling so far that governments must ration gas to businesses. and Qatar and by obtaining increased pipeline supplies from Norway and Azerbaijan. The high energy prices are sapping so much consumer purchasing power that economists predict a recession at the end of this year and the beginning of next.Įuropean governments and utilities have made up much of the Russian shortfall by purchasing expensive supplies of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, that comes by ship from countries such as the U.S. High prices for natural gas, which is used for heating homes, generating electricity and a host of industrial processes, are fuelling record consumer inflation of 10% in the 19 EU nations that use the shared euro currency. The IEA assumed 90% would be needed in its Russian gas cutoff scenario.īusinesses in Europe have already cut back natural gas use, sometimes simply by abandoning energy-intensive activity such as making steel and fertilizer, while smaller businesses like bakeries are feeling a severe crimp in their costs. The EU has already filled storage to 88%, ahead of its goal of 80% before winter. Two other routes, under the Baltic Sea to Germany and through Belarus and Poland, have shut down.Īnother hazard highlighted by the study was a late winter cold snap, which would be particularly challenging because underground gas reserves flow more slowly at the end of the season due to less gas and lower pressure in the storage caverns. Just a trickle of Russian gas is still arriving in pipelines through Ukraine to Slovakia and across the Black Sea through Turkey to Bulgaria. The EU on Friday agreed to mandate a reduction in electricity consumption by at least 5% during peak price hours. Much of that cutback would have to come from consumer behaviour such as turning down thermostats by 1 degree and adjusting boiler temperatures as well as industrial and utility conservation, the group said. The Paris-based IEA said in its quarterly gas report that the European Union's 27 countries would need to reduce natural gas use by 13% over the winter in case of a complete Russian cutoff amid the war in Ukraine. Europe faces "unprecedented risks" to its natural gas supplies this winter after Russia cut off most pipeline shipments, the International Energy Agency said Monday, warning that European nations could wind up competing with Asia for already scarce and expensive liquid gas that comes by ship.
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